money, summer edition

its been a month (28 days really).the original post never gave a time frame or expected return. lets check up on the 3 places anyways.

  • Oil: June 2 - $127, June 29 - $140 (ref)
  • Visa 'V': June 2 - $86, June 29 - $82
  • Baht for $1 USD: June 2 - 32.5, June 29 - 33.5 (ref)

lets say USD$1000 was invested in each place. glossing over expenses such as brokerage fees, thats +$130 for the oil, -$40 for the stock, and +$30 for the baht.

the price of oil is still rising. i figure it makes sense to short the stock of companies that make fuel-inefficient vehicles. what i struggle with is, is that enough evidence? how much is enough proof to act on something?

our hypothetical stock money is tied up in visa. lets cut our losses and put the remaining $960 in a short sale of auto companies whose cars use a huge amount of gas. The Winnebago, the american classic. a luxury item and a gas guzzler. any ideas on similar companies? Things like Hummers and Escalades are too small a piece of the business to affect the stock price of a huge operation like GM. id like to get one or two other stocks in the mix.

  • Winnebago 'WGO' - $10.87

my basic philosophy is that the price of oil will continue to rise until November 2nd because of the disastrous foreign policy decisions of the last 6 years. These disasters come from the Bush administration and are approved by congress. The Bush adinistration has 4 months until someone wins the election and 7 months until it is replaced. thats plenty of time to make things worse, like threaten to use the US Military against Iran. actions which are sure to increase the price of oil from those countries and neighboring countries.

what happens to the price of oil after nov 2nd is a very good question. it may take until Jan 20th but I believe the price of oil will drop significantly (under $100). Iraq will function as a US territory, slowly reverting back to Iraqi statehood but it will take a long time. In the mean time large oil companies can drill directly once again and avoid enriching anyone who lives in Iraq.